Program of the 14^th Annual Conference on

The Political Economy of International Organization

July 7-9, 2022

Blavatnik School of Government, 120 Walton St, Oxford OX2 6GG University of Oxford

Wednesday, July 6

6:45 pm Dinner (optional, at own expense)

Brasserie Blanc Oxford, 71-72 Walton Street, Oxford, OX2 6AG

Thursday, July 7

Lecture Theatre 1

8:35-9:00 am Opening remarks

9:00-10:45 am Session 1: Influence of and on IOs

Chair: Christina Schneider

• Paper 1: Marco Martini (University of Zurich), Stefanie Walter (University of Zurich). Learning from Precedent: How the British Brexit
  Experience Counteracts Nationalism outside the UK. Discussion openers: Lamar Crombach, Emily Jones
• Paper 2: Christoph Mikulaschek (Harvard University). The Responsive Public: How EU Decisions Shape Public Opinion on Salient Policies. Discussion openers: Valentin Lang, Miles Williams
• Paper 3: Valentin Lang (Mannheim University), Nils Redeker (Hertie School Berlin), Daniel Bischof (Aarhus University & University of Zurich). Does the EU Help the Left Behind? Place-based Policies and Inequality within Regions. Discussants: Christoph Mikulaschek, Christina Schneider

10:45-11:15 am Group photo and break

11:15-1:00 pm Session 2: World Trade Organization

Chair: Jennifer Tobin

• Paper 1: Gyu Sang Shim (University of Rochester), Randall Stone (University of Rochester). Foreign Agents: MNCs and WTO Disputes. Discussion openers: Samuel Brazys, Layna Mosley
• Paper 2: Margaret Foster (University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill), Tana Johnson (University of Wisconsin –Madison), Maurits van der Veen (William & Mary). Developing Gridlock: Frames of Contestation at the World Trade Organization. Discussion openers: Michal Parizek, B. Peter Rosendorff
• Paper 3: Krzysztof Pelc (McGill University), Joost Pauwelyn (The Graduate Institute, Geneva). WTO Rulings and the Veil of Anonymity. Discussion openers: Zoe Xincheng Ge, Christina Davis

1:00-2:00 pm Lunch

Foyer

2:00-3:45 pm Session 3: International Monetary Fund

Chair: Axel Dreher

• Paper 1: Andreas Kern (Georgetown University), Bernhard Reinsberg (University of Glasgow). The Political Economy of Chinese Debt and IMF Conditionality. Discussion openers: Merih Angin, Randall Stone
• Paper 2: Iasmin Goes (Juan March Institute – Carlos III), Terrence Chapman (The University of Texas at Austin). Does “Toothless” IO Advice Matter? IMF Surveillance and Natural Resource Sector Reform. Discussion openers: Silvia Marchesi, Thomas Stubbs
• Paper 3: Richard Clark (Princeton University), Noah Zucker (Columbia University). Climate Cascades: IOs and the Prioritization of Climate Action. Discussion openers: Tana Johnson, Suanne M. Segovia Tzompa

3:45-4:15 pm Break

4:15-6:00 pm Session 4: International Organizations

Chair: Christopher Kilby

• Paper 1: Andrew Lugg (University of Maryland and World Trade Institute). Re-contracting International Organizations: Membership Change and the Creation of Linked Intergovernmental Organizations. Discussion openers: Thomas Hale, Julia Morse
• Paper 2: Sayumi Miyano (Princeton University). Regime Complexity and Overlapping Information: The Case of Energy Projections. Discussion openers: Richard Clark, Noémie Laurens
• Paper 3: Inken von Borzyskowski (University College London), Felicity Vabulas (Pepperdine University). When is Withdrawal from International Organizations Deadly? Discussion openers: Tyler Pratt, Mette Eilstrup-Sangiovanni

7:00 pm Dinner (at own expense)

St Edmund Hall (Queen’s Ln, Oxford OX1 4AR)

Friday, July 8

Lecture Theater 1

9:00-10:45 am Session 5: United Nations

Chair: Emily Jones

• Paper 1: Shing Hon Lam (University of California, Los Angeles), Courtney Fung (The University of Hong Kong). Mapping China’s Influence at the United Nations. Discussion openers: Samuel Brazys, Alexandra Zeitz
• Paper 2: Bridget Coggins (University of California, Santa Barbara), Julia Morse (University of California, Santa Barbara). Your Silence Speaks Volumes: The Politics of Absence in the UN General Assembly. Discussion openers: Rafael Mesquita, Christopher Kilby
• Paper 3: Madeleine Hosli (Leiden University), Jaroslaw Kantorowicz (Leiden University). The European Union in the United Nations: An Analysis of General Assembly Debates. Discussion openers: Christopher Kilby, Alastair Smith

10:45-11:15 am Break

11:15-1:00 pm Session 6: International Monetary Fund

Chair: Randall Stone

• Paper 1: Hamza Bennani (Nantes University), Cécile Couharde (Université Paris Nanterre), Yoan Wallois (University of Lille and Ghent University). The Effect of IMF Communication on Government Bond Markets: Insights from Sentiment Analysis. Discussion openers: Pietro Bomprezzi, Stephanie Rickard
• Paper 2: Lauren Ferry (University of Mississippi), Alexandra Zeitz (Concordia University). The Money is in the Mission: Explaining Variation in IMF Negotiations. Discussion openers: Katharina Michaelowa, Bernhard Reinsberg
• Paper 3: Timon Forster (Freie Universität Berlin), Dan Honig (University College London), Alexander Kentikelenis (Bocconi University). Conditional Coordination: How Powerful States Pursue Interlinked Multilateral and Bilateral Strategies to Shape Development. Discussion openers: Saliha Metinsoy, David Weyrauch

1:00-2:00 pm Lunch

Foyer

2:00-3:45 pm Session 7: Public Opinion

Chair: Helen Milner

• Paper 1: Lisa Dellmuth (Stockholm University), Jonas Tallberg (Stockholm University). Effects of Institutional Legitimation in International Organizations on Popular Legitimacy. Discussion openers: Benjamin Dassler, Tana Johnson
• Paper 2: Lukas Wellner (University of Göttingen), Axel Dreher (Heidelberg University), Andreas Fuchs (University of Göttingen), Bradley Parks (William & Mary), Austin Strange (University of Hong Kong). Can Aid Buy Foreign Public Support? Evidence from Chinese Development Finance. Discussion openers: Samuel Brazys, Christopher Kilby
• Paper 3: Kelebogile Zvobgo (William & Mary), Stephen Chaudoin (Harvard University). Complementarity and Public Views on Overlapping Domestic and International Courts. Discussion openers: Tyler Pratt, Tal Sadeh

3:45-4:15 pm Break

4:15-6:15 pm Poster Session and Reception

(Foyer)

Foreign Aid

• Miles Williams (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign). A Strategic Political Economy of Aid. Discussants: Iasmin Goes, Dan Honig
• Pietro Bomprezzi (Università di Milano Bicocca), Silvia Marchesi (Università di Milano Bicocca), Tania Masi (University “G. d’Annunzio” Chieti Pescara). Firm-level Evidence on the Effects of European Aid Projects. Discussants: Anna Minasyan, Jennifer Tobin
• Syeda Shahbano Ijaz (UC San Diego). Moral Hazard or State Capacity? U.S. Military Assistance and Political Violence in Pakistan. Discussants: Helen Milner, Anna Minasyan
• Nathalie Ferriere (Sciences Po Aix and Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE). Filling the “Decency Gap”? Donors’ Reactions to the US Policy on International Family Planning Aid. Discussants: Kathleen Brown, Christina Schneider
• Samuel Brazys (University College Dublin), Yoo Sun Jung (University College Dublin). Paving their own Road? Local Chinese and World Bank Aid and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa. Discussants: Jennifer Tobin, Alexandra Zeitz
• Alice Iannantuoni (University of Geneva), Simone Dietrich (University of Geneva), Bernhard Reinsberg (University of Glasgow). Who Reviews Whom, Where and Why? Evidence from the Peer Review Process in the OECD Development Assistance Committee. Discussants: Richard Clark, Christoph Mikulaschek

Trade and Investment

• Zoe Xincheng Ge (New York University). Obsolescent Treaties: Global Value Chains and the Termination of Bilateral Investment Treaties. Discussants: Soo Yeon Kim, B. Peter Rosendorff
• Sandra Lavenex (University of Geneva), Philipp Lutz (University of Geneva), Paula Hoffmeyer-Zlotnik (University of Geneva). Migration Governance Through Trade Agreements: Insights from the MITA Database. Discussants: Krzysztof Pelc, Thomas Sattler (email)
• Sam Rowan (Concordia University). Enforcing Cooperation Using Issue Linkage: Theory from the Intersection of Climate Change and Trade. Discussants: Christina Davis, Yoram Haftel
• Faisal Ahmed (Princeton University), Adeel Malik (Oxford University). Crony Globalization. Discussants: Axel Dreher, Stefanie Walter (email)

Europe

• Lamar Crombach (KOF, ETH Zürich), Frank Bohn (Radboud University), Jan-Egbert Sturm (KOF, ETH Zürich). Why are Political Budget Cycles Larger in Monetary Unions? Discussants: Thomas Sattler (email), Lukas Wellner

International Monetary Fund

• Bernhard Reinsberg (University of Glasgow), Thomas Stubbs (Royal Holloway University of London), Louis Bujnoch (University of Glasgow). Structural Adjustment, Alienation, and Mass Protest. Discussants: Hamza Bennani, Lisa Dellmuth
• Merih Angin (Koc University), Ayse Kaya (Swarthmore College), Saliha Metinsoy (University of Groningen). Who Receives IMF Anti-Corruption Measures? A Text Analysis of IMF Loan Programs. Discussants: Timon Forster, Iasmin Goes
• Nikitas Konstantinidis (IE University), Bernhard Reinsberg (University of Glasgow). Local Ownership of IMF Conditionality Programs: Conceptualization, Measurement, and Validation. Discussants: Stephanie Rickard, Randall Stone
• Tal Sadeh (Tel Aviv University), Ben Cormier (London School of Economics & Political Science). TAPing Debt Markets – Introducing the Database on Transparency, Autonomy and Professionalism in Public Debt Management. Discussants: Kathleen Brown, Thomas Hale

Exit and Reform

• Mette Eilstrup-Sangiovanni (University of Cambridge). To Reform or to Replace? Institutional Re-contracting and the Succession of International Organizations. Discussants: Inken von Borzyskowski, Julia Morse
• David Weyrauch (University of Mannheim). Exit from Intergovernmental Organizations – How Domestic Politics Conditions International Disintegration. Discussants: Margaret Foster, Felicity Vabulas
• Benjamin Dassler (LMU Munich), Tim Heinkelmann-Wild (LMU Munich), Martijn Huysmans (Utrecht University). Insuring the Weak: Exit Clauses in International Organization. Discussants: Marco Martini, Felicity Vabulas

United Nations

• Joshua Fjelstul (University of Geneva), Simon Hug (University of Geneva), Christopher Kilby (Villanova University). What Can We Learn by Collecting More Complete UNGA Voting Records? Discussants: Madeleine Hosli, Erik Voeten
• Rafael Mesquita (Federal University of Pernambuco). The Only Living Guerrillero in New York: Cuba and the Brokerage Power of Resilient Rogue States. Discussants: Susanna Campbell, Terrence Chapman

Domestic Politics and IOs

• Michal Parizek (Charles University). Media Visibility of International Organizations Worldwide: Politicization of International Authority or ‘Boots-on-the-Ground’ Work? Discussants: Lisa Dellmuth, Kelebogile Zvobgo
• Matt Malis (New York University), B. Peter Rosendorff (New York University), Alastair Smith (New York University). A Political Economy of International Organizations. Discussants: Duncan Snidal, Stefanie Walter (email)
• Julia Morse (University of California, Santa Barbara), Tyler Pratt (Yale University). Strategies of Contestation: International Law, Domestic Audiences, and Image Management. Discussants: Stephen Chaudoin, Kelebogile Zvobgo

Delegation and Design

• Noémie Laurens (Laval University). A Springboard or a Safeguard? The Repercussions of Affinity on Treaty Adaptability. Discussants: Andrew Lugg, Gyu Sang Shim
• Emiel Awad (London School of Economics & Political Science), Nicolas Riquelme (Universidad de Los Andes). International Coordination and the Informational Rationale for Delegation. Discussants: Shing Hon Lam, Duncan Snidal
• Anja Jetschke (University of Göttingen), Patrick Theiner (University of Edinburgh), Sören Münch (University of Göttingen). Explaining the Similarity of Regional Organizations: Demand, Opportunities to Learn, and Domestic Constraints. Discussants: Yoram Haftel, Sayumi Miyano

Climate

• Claas Mertens (Oxford University). The Determinants of Retaliation in International Economic Conflict and the Implications for Global Climate Policy: A Difference-in-Difference Design. Discussants: Thomas Bernauer, Amanda Kennard
• Suanne M. Segovia Tzompa (Stockholm University). The Global Political Economy of Adaptation Funding: The Case of Indigenous Peoples. Discussants: Katharina Michaelowa, Noah Zucker

7:00 pm Dinner

Dining Hall, Nuffield College, New Rd, Oxford OX1 1NF

Saturday, July 9

Lecture Theater 1

9:00-10:45 am Session 8: Trade and Investment

Chair: Karolina Milewicz

• Paper 1: Yoram Haftel (Hebrew University of Jerusalem), Morr Link (Hebrew University of Jerusalem), Tomer Broude (Hebrew University of Jerusalem). Last Year’s Model? Investment Arbitration, Learning, and the Gap between Model BITs and IIAs. Discussion openers: Anja Jetschke, Adeel Malik
• Paper 2: Jennifer Tobin (Georgetown University), Marc Busch (Georgetown University). Developing Countries’ Utilization of US GSP: Labor Standards, the Margin of Preference, and the Demand for Zero Tariffs. Discussion openers: Tomer Broude, Layna Mosley
• Paper 3: J. Lawrence Broz (University of California, San Diego), T. Renee Bowen (University of California, San Diego), B. Peter Rosendorff (New York University). Trade Policy Transitions: Three Eras of U.S. Trade Policy. Discussion openers: Soo Yeon Kim, Helen Milner

10:45-11:15 am Break

11:15-1:00 pm Session 9: International Organizations and Aid

Chair: Katharina Michaelowa

• Paper 1: Felicity Vabulas (Pepperdine University), Duncan Snidal (Oxford University). ASEAN Way, No Way: Informality and Regional Organizations. Discussion openers: Sandra Lavenex, Andrew Lugg
• Paper 2: Susanna Campbell (American University), Aila Matanock (University of California, Berkeley). Weapons of the Weak State: How Post-Conflict States Shape International Statebuilding. Discussion openers: Alice Iannantuoni, Amanda Kennard
• Paper 3: Anna Minasyan (University of Groningen), Gabriella Montinola (University of California, Davis). Development Aid and Women’s Legal Empowerment. Discussion openers: Faisal Ahmed, Simone Dietrich

1:00-2:00 pm Lunch
Foyer

2:00-3:45 pm Session 10: Globalization and Global Finance

Chair: Soo Yeon Kim

• Paper 1: Kathleen Brown (Leiden University). Why Hide? Africa’s Unreported Debt to China. Discussion openers: Silvia Marchesi, Bernhard Reinsberg
• Paper 2: Erik Voeten (Georgetown University). Do Domestic Climate Rulings Make Paris Treaty Commitments More Credible? Evidence from Stock Market Returns. Discussion openers: Karolina Milewicz, Sam Rowan
• Paper 3: Christina Schneider (University of California, San Diego), Robert Thomson (Monash University). Globalization and Promissory Representation. Discussion openers: Emiel Awad, Claas Mertens

3:45-4:00 pm Closing Remarks

6:00 pm Dinner (optional, at own expense)

Al-Shami restaurant, 25 Walton Cres, Oxford, OX1 2JG